Nasir AhmadEl-Rufai, immediate former governor of Kaduna State, has resigned his membership of the ruling All Progressives Congress, APC. A founding member of the coalition that brought APC to power in 2015, he threw in the towel Monday, March 10, in a letter he personally signed, citing irreconcilable differences.
“As a founding member of the All-Progressives Congress (APC), I have fond memories of working with other compatriots to negotiate the merger of political parties that created the APC. It had been my hope since 2013 that my personal values and that of the APC will continue to align up to the time I choose to retire from politics.
Developments in the last two years confirm that there is no desire on the part of those who currently control and run the APC to acknowledge, much less address, the unhealthy situation of the party.
On my part, I have raised concerns in private and, more recently, in public regarding the capricious trajectory of the party. Therefore, at this point in my political journey, I have come to the conclusion that I must seek another political platform for the pursuit of the progressive values I cherish.
“Founders rightly feel attached towards institutions they helped create, but one must be pragmatic enough to admit when a divergence appears unbridgeable. I have diligently served the APC and made my contributions to its viability as a political platform, but I recognize that the party has since strayed and left me stuck in the vision of its well-meaning founding fathers and mothers.
“As a loyal party man, I worked to help secure the APC’s election victories in 2015, 2019 and 2023. I was one of the many governors elected on the party’s platform in 2015 and 2019, that stood for certain democratic and progressive principles to advance nation-building. My eight-year tenure in Kaduna State was devoted to implementing progressive policies to advance human development in education and healthcare, as well as expand infrastructure, promote equality of opportunity, create jobs and attract investments. These records count for little in the current APC that has castrated its organs and treated its membership with contempt in the last two years. I find this no longer acceptable.
“Today, 10th March 2025, I have submitted a letter resigning my membership of the APC to my ward in Kaduna, effective immediately. Prior to this step, I had concluded consultations with my mentors, colleagues and loyalists across the country about the future. I have now decided to join the Social Democratic Party (SDP) and adopt it as the platform for our future political engagements and activities.
“Without prejudice to this decision, as a member of the SDP, I will focus on engaging with and persuading other opposition leaders and parties to join us and congregate under a unified democratic platform to challenge the APC in all elections and bye-elections between now and 2027 by the Grace of God. I therefore call on all our supporters and other persons concerned about our country’s future to join us in the SDP in the journey towards making Nigeria flourish as a beacon of pride for Africans and the Black Race.
Thank you and God Bless the Social Democratic Party. God Bless the Federal Republic of Nigeria.”
Rift between President Bola Tinubu and El-Rufai had appeared shortly before the presidential inauguration in 2023. He was fundamental to the North supporting Tinubu during the APC primary, and during the presidential election. Tinubu won the election in the North, while Peter Obi of Labour Party won the election in the South.
It was seen as given that El-Rufai will be part of Tinubu’s cabinet. He was tapped to be the power minister with a mandate to solve Nigeria’s Herculean energy crisis. However, it was alleged that the former governor failed security screening. The details of the security concerns were not disclosed, raising the suspicion that Tinubu did not want him in his cabinet.
His record with his political benefactors since 1999 suggests that his loyalty may not be guaranteed. He started with Atiku Abubakar. Then president Olusegun Obasanjo made him the director general of Bureau of Public Enterprises and later minister of the Federal Capital Territory, F.C.T He transferred his loyalty to Obasanjo. He joined General Muhammadu Buhari to unseat then President Goodluck Jonathan in 2015. He was rewarded with the governorship of Kaduna State where in his second term he muscled the Christian Southern Kaduna out of their traditional deputy governorship position and test ran a Muslim-Muslim ticket, as a prelude to APC running a very controversial Muslim-Muslim presidential ticket.
That aberration, widely condemned and protested against by Christians across Nigeria, was thought to have been done to convince Tinubu to run with El-Rufai as vice president, a position that may have positioned him for a shot at the presidency in 2031. Tinubu, however, preferred Kashim Shettima, a former governor of Borno State in the Northeast, a zone in the North that is clamouring for the presidency as they have never occupied the position. The choice of Shettima as VP and Nuhu Ribadu, a former EFCC chairman, as the National Security Adviser, and both coming from the Northeast, gives either of them a comparative advantage over El-Rufai as presidential candidate of APC in 2031 when power is expected to switch back to the North.
His choice of Social Democratic Party, SDP, with Shehu Gabam as national chairman appears well thought. The national secretary is Olu Ogunleye, and the national treasurer is Clarkson Nnadi, two southerners without enough political clout to sway the south to SDP.
Gabam celebrated the party’s capture of the former governor on his Facebook Monday afternoon: “Finally, Mallam Nasir El-Rufai officially joins the Social Democratic Party (SDP)! Today marks a historic moment as former Kaduna State Governor, Mallam Nasir El-Rufai, officially joins the Social Democratic Party (SDP)! This move is a strong testament to SDP’s growing influence and credibility as the true party for progressive governance, national development, and unwavering commitment to democracy.
“El-Rufai’s entrance into the party strengthens our ranks and reinforces SDP’s position as the most formidable political force in Nigeria today. As a man known for bold reforms, governance excellence, and national impact, his presence will further energize our movement and inspire more Nigerians to join us in building a better future.
“SDP is the party of integrity, vision, and transformation! We welcome El-Rufai and encourage all well-meaning Nigerians to align with the SDP—the party that truly puts the people first. Join the movement today! The future is SDP!”
Peter Obi’s achievement with Labour Party in 2023 gives the SDP hope they could make a good showing in 2027. El-Rufai joined SDP at a good time, two years to the next election. It gives him and the party two years to build a national spread.
The likelihood of a Northern candidate upstaging Tinubu in 2027 is an uphill climb. Though his policies have impacted the North very negatively in the standard of living, Northerners are not known for independent voting, like Southerners. Tinubu has strong backing of some strong stakeholders in the North who could convince the traditional leaders to give him four more years in 2027.
Again, the North is divided. Atiku Abubakar and his group are planning a mega party with some southern politicians across political parties, including Peter Obi. That group is stronger than SDP and gathering momentum by the months.
El-Rufai may be targeting 2031, not 2027. He may use 2027 to test run the party, knowing they cannot dislodge a shrewd Tinubu. And knowing the South will not accept the return of power to the North in 2027, he will be ready to engage APC for the presidency in 2031 instead. The SDP may even support a southern candidate in 2027 in preparation for 2031.
Put together, APC may be heading for a PDP scenario ahead of 2027. Labour Party may also disintegrate as APC is suspected to have infiltrated the party. Obi also appears to be looking beyond LP for another shot at the presidency in 2027.
Anayochukwu Agbo
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