International political and public affairs analysts have predicted that President Goodluck Jonathan may emerge winner of the 2015 Presidential elections.
This, the experts have said, may happen inspite of the baggage of corruption and insecurity which the Jonathan administration evidently battles with.
In a report monitored on Reuters, UK, the experts cited a number of indices including weak opposition, fluid nature of Nigerian party system and the high commanding influence of money and patronage in the country’s political scene as reasons for the President’s possible victory.
The experts say despite the huge corruption scandals and unbridled killing of civilians including the kidnap of over 200 secondary school girls by the Boko Haram Islamic sect during Jonathan’s administration, he may still emerge the country’s president in 2015.
“The primacy of money and patronage in determining electoral outcome in Nigeria” and lack of “steadfast unity” by the opposition, All Progressives Congress, APC were identified by Roddy Barcley, African analyst and political risk consultant as major grounds for Jonathan’s robust position to winning the election.
Barcley said the failure of the APC to capitalise on internal crisis that led to a splitter group of the Peoples Democratic Party, PDP last year during which it lost five of its governors to the opposition party and lack of cooperation to come up with a consensus presidential candidate, further reveals “the fluid nature of Nigerian party politics.”
Philippe de Pontet of Eurasia group, public analysts said, “The opposition is cannibalising itself. Its top elites are vying against one another. That’s a glide path for President Jonathan.”
Giving support to the opinions earlier expressed by the speakers, Antony Goldman, head, Nigeria-focused PM consulting said, “Expectations in the electorate are fairly modest and they are hugely disenfranchised, despite years of civilian rule.”
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