Lagos APC: Election Data Exposes the Myth of Peter Obi’s ‘National Movement’

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The Lagos State chapter of the All Progressives Congress (APC) has intensified its scrutiny of the 2023 presidential election, arguing that hard data—not political sentiment—explains Peter Obi’s sweeping victories in parts of the South-East and his poor performance across the rest of the country.

In a statement released on Thursday by its spokesman, Hon. Seye Oladejo, the party said an independent, data-driven report referenced by TheCable on December 20, 2025, offers a “sobering and factual” account of one of the election’s biggest paradoxes: Obi’s near-total dominance in his home region and his collapse nationwide.

According to the APC, the findings show unusually high concentrations of anomalous polling units in key South-East states.

Anambra State recorded an anomaly rate of 24.9 per cent, Enugu 16.7 per cent, and Imo 10.9 per cent. The party noted that these three states alone accounted for a disproportionate share of the 4,351 anomalous polling units identified out of 123,918 analysed nationwide.

By contrast, the report showed significantly lower anomaly rates in more politically competitive states. Lagos recorded 2.3 per cent, while Oyo posted an almost negligible 0.3 per cent.

The Lagos APC argued that such patterns are electorally significant in a contest decided by wide margins. It said clusters of “perfect scores,” unusually round figures and statistically improbable vote distributions—many traced to Labour Party strongholds—helped inflate Obi’s margins in the South-East, while similar outcomes were largely absent in regions with stronger inter-party competition.

“This explains why Obi appeared electorally invincible in the East, yet failed to gain traction across the North, South-West, South-South and much of the Middle Belt, where scrutiny by party agents and civil society made manipulation harder to execute or conceal,” the statement said.

While acknowledging Obi’s genuine popularity in the South-East, the APC insisted that popularity alone does not rule out irregularities. The party argued that environments with weak opposition often allow subtle manipulation to thrive, as result sheets attract less scrutiny and questionable turnouts appear plausible.

The statement further stressed that the national results tell a clear story. Obi secured 29.1 per cent of total votes cast, finished third behind the APC and the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP), and failed to make significant inroads outside the South-East.

“This reality punctures the narrative of a stolen mandate,” the APC said, describing Obi’s support as a regionally concentrated surge rather than a true national movement.

The Lagos APC also reiterated that electoral malpractice in Nigeria is systemic and not confined to any one party. According to the party, the report shows that irregularities followed opportunity rather than ideology, undermining claims of moral exceptionalism by any political group, including the Labour Party.

Looking ahead to 2027, the APC argued that shifting alliances and recent off-season elections suggest that Obi’s regional appeal is already waning. It said sustainable political success requires national spread, organisation and consistency, not grievance politics or social media sentiment.

“The data shows Obi’s dominance was regional, fragile and statistically inflated in places where scrutiny was weakest,” the statement said, adding that current political realignments indicate even that advantage is thinning.

In its concluding remarks, the Lagos APC said the report does not undermine Nigeria’s democracy or invalidate the 2023 election, but instead restores clarity to a debate often driven by emotion and misinformation.

It called for more independent audits, stronger electoral safeguards and the prosecution of offenders across all parties.
“Democracy is best served by truth, not mythology,” the statement said.